In this piece we examine the link between the length of time countries across the world have spent in lockdown and the economic damage. Are lockdowns completely to blame for the contraction of GDP around the globe?
In times of crisis, the economy is usually the first port of call for disaster—and the impact can be felt for many years after. The Bank of England says that history has proven there are two certain things when it comes to financial crises: another one will follow, and it will be different from the last one.
Our world has changed dramatically over the best part of a year. A rare disaster of a global pandemic never before seen in our lifetime has resulted in countries introducing necessary quarantines and social distancing measures in a bid to curb the spread of the virus. This has had a negative but necessary effect on our economies. A crisis bringing great uncertainty, governments are providing support to workers, businesses, and financial markets to guide us towards a strong recovery. However, there is doubt about what our global economic landscape will look like when things return to normal.
Lockdown across the world
Policymakers have had the difficult decision of when to implement lockdown, the severity of restrictions, and how long to keep measures in place for. Lockdown restrictions have been met with both open arms and criticism in places all over the world. For example, in South Africa, the strictest measures were put in place to combat some of the highest levels of the virus. The country banned the sale of alcohol and tobacco.
Although saving lives, there are devastating effects for global economies, with spending plummeting to all-time lows. Research by financial firm Jefferies in the United States has shown that in states such as Arizona, Texas, and Utah, where the number of COVID-19 cases was rising dramatically, spending starts to contract. When comparing state data on Google which looks into retail and recreation establishments, states with high numbers of the virus are performing considerably worse than others.
Denmark and Sweden approached lockdown quite differently, with Sweden choosing to trust its people to behave responsibly rather than enforce a lockdown. Meanwhile, Denmark introduced one of the earliest and strictest lockdowns. Although Sweden’s death rate was five times higher than Denmark’s, the economic impact was similar.
The reason for that, Dhaval Joshi, of BCA research says, is that people change their behaviour whether there is a lockdown or not. They avoid public transport, stay away from shops, and refuse to send their children to school. Joshi argued that this is because people change their behaviour whether there is a lockdown or not, avoiding public transport, staying home where possible, and refusing to send their children to school.
Here, we take a look at how long countries were in lockdown for to see if there is a link between economic damage and lockdowns.
Global GDP change
QuickBooks, online accounting software firm, conducted research looking at dates where lockdown was first introduced in a country and ending on the date they were gradually lifted. 2019’s GDP for each country and 2020 forecast figures from Trading Economics were explored.
